Futuresource: Netflix’s ‘next wave of opportunities’ in developing markets

Developing markets such as Russia, Poland, Turkey, India and China could represent “the next wave of opportunities” for Netflix, according to new research by Futuresource Consulting.

The research firm said that while Netflix has enjoyed huge success in developed nations, it “is now looking to emerging markets for continued growth,” citing its success in Mexico where it launched in 2011.

Futuresource research analyst Tristan Veale said that the Russian digital video sector is “rapidly expanding”, despite endemic piracy and a depressed economy, with retail spend tipped to more than treble by 2019.

The affluent Russian cities are well served by ISP’s meaning that, among this target market, “once the economy is back on track, spend on OTT will once again accelerate,” according to FutureSource.

The research firm said the expected entry of Netflix into Poland during 2016 will provide a boost to the SVoD segment there.

“Digital video spend is forecast to outstrip packaged media spend for the first time this year in Poland representing 58% of total home video expenditure with revenues of PLN170 million (€40 million),” said Michael Boreham, senior market analyst at Futuresource.

In Turkey, Futuresource analyst David Sidebottom says the digital video market “remains in its embryonic stages” but tips SVoD to dominate the online video market in the long term.

“Turkey’s large population, which has a comparatively high youth component (17% of the total population are 18 to 24 years old), growing broadband penetration (42% as of end 2014) and a growing appetite for all types of video content will provide a stimulus for digital video growth across all sectors,” said Futuresource.

Joanna Wright, senior market analyst at Futuresource, predicts Netflix or Amazon will launch in the Indian market by the end of 2016, tapping into the country’s 1.3 billion population.

Meanwhile, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings said in July that he hopes a version of the SVoD service will launch in China next year.

Futuresource’s Boreham said “The Mexican market exemplifies how developing nations can drive service growth”, predicting that by the end of 2015 Netflix will have 2.5 million subscriptions there, making it its fourth largest international market after the UK, Canada and Brazil.